Things To Do Now
From The Maven Letter: 11 October 2023 Â
Metals markets are boring boring boring. A few stocks are doing well but all others are sideways at best, sliding if worse. And there’s no reason to think this will change soon.
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Metals move when shortages come to the fore. Many metals will move into shortage over the next few years but they are not there yet
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Metals move when speculators jump in ahead of shortages. This isn’t happening because (1) investors use this tactic when they see global growth ahead and growth is uncertain and (2) speculators have all kinds of other options (AI, biotech, etc)
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November and December are rarely good months for metals. That goes for all metals, but especially for gold. As the chart below shows, the last metals bull market reduced the weak seasonality of the end of the year but if you look just at the last 5 years or look across 30 years (so the last bull market is diluted) the pattern is the same: gold slides into the end of the year
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Of course, seasonality is only the undercurrent. Overtones matter
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