November 20, 2023 - The Gold Advisor

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No Simple Headline For This Mess…

From The Maven Letter: 16 November 2023

A few good data points sent markets higher this week. Key among those good data points were weak inflation numbers, showing CPI and all its permutation extended steady declines in October. That seems to have cemented the idea that rates have topped, which sent yields down so markedly that it seemed the bond rout of the last year might have ended.

At least, it seemed that way for a day.

I start with this because man oh man it remains strange out there. Stocks ripping higher while growth slows; bond yields rising while inflation falls; seven stocks responsible for pulling entire stock market higher.

In today’s comment, I want to highlight some of the strangeness. I’ll do it point form, rather than my usual extended blather.

Searching documents filings going back to 1995, it appears mentions of a ‘soft landing’ have spiked twice before…and both times were followed by a recession. It’s a reminder that recessions usually come on gradually, disguised as soft landings until they really hit. Also, if you define soft landing as a period when rates rise but economic growth doesn’t contract for even one quarter, it has happened

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