December 18, 2023 - The Gold Advisor

See Peter Krauth and Ted Butler at the Metals Investor Forum in Toronto February 27-28!

Happy Holidays From the Fed!

From The Maven Letter: 13 December 2023

I’ve talked a lot about rates in the last while. I had to because they were THE reason gold moved decisively up through $2000 per oz. and rate expectations are THE factor that will determine where gold goes from here.

Today was a big rate in the world of rates: a Fed rate decision (unchanged at 5.25 to 5.5% – no surprise there) and a dot plot updating where policy makers see rates going. The FOMC only updates its dot plot every other meeting, so we only get this look at official rate expectations four times a year. Here it is.

I used Yahoo’s version of the dot plot rather than the official one from the Fed because this one compares policy makers’ rate outlooks from September and today. The difference is not dramatic but it’s important.

Look at 2024. The blue dots show that, in September, Fed officials expected to make 1, or maybe 2, rate cuts next year. Today they expect to cut 3, perhaps 4, times in 2024.

Three cuts to get to a Federal funds rate of 4.5-4.75% is a different

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