March 18, 2024 - The Gold Advisor

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Gold’s Big, Unexpected Move

From The Maven Letter: 13 March 2024

Why did gold suddenly shoot higher? Good question. It’s not because western investors are buying gold ETFs. In fact, as of a few days ago they were still selling those, creating this rather amazing chart (thanks to Brien Lundin for it) showing the gold price rising and gold held in GLD falling.

Yet gold moved. I think it happened because gold-interested investors decided three pieces of news supported the idea that rate cuts are coming.

In the JOLTS report we saw another drop in the quits rate, putting quits lower than they were pre-COVID. People are hanging onto their jobs, which reduces labor market friction and eases wage inflation.

The jobs report showed decent job growth for February but revised January’s blockbuster 353,000 gain to 229,000 (the start of the year was not all that hot) and showed unemployment bouncing from 3.7% to 3.9%. That’s still a fine number…but it’s a notable rise.

Then Jerome Powell, in his testimony to Congress, reiterated that he still views policy as restrictive and that the FOMC is “not far” from having the confidence to

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