Silver Outperforms as Bonds Struggle

Silver has started behaving well since the start of the year. In the first three months, silver is already up 8.7%. The following chart of the last two months shows that silver began climbing in late January, then peaked in early March.

Top safe haven assets tend to be silver, gold, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. Treasuries. Secondary ones may also be highly liquid and widely used currencies like the euro, the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen.

What I find interesting is that silver started to climb a full three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. It’s as though precious metals were already sensing the impending military crisis, with Russian troops gathering en masse along the Ukrainian border. Silver then reversed, but not much.

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A Silly And Unsurprising FED Suprise

For years now the Fed has worked to communicate clearly and signal its intentions ahead so as to never take the market by surprise.

Yet despite all those efforts, somehow there are still key pieces of information that are not communicated.

Today is a prime example. After the Fed’s last meeting in mid-March, the statement communicated a 25-basis point raise and a more aggressive rate-hiking outlook from all members. In the press conference following, Fed chair Powell said the committee had discussed balance sheet reduction but not made any firm decisions.

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