If Gold Moves Without A Reason…Is It A Bull Market?

From The Maven Letter: 20 March 2024

The Fed had its meeting. The result was as predictable as rain in Vancouver: no change in rates and a dot plot that still suggests three cuts this year but a statement that says no cuts will actually occur until the committee has more confidence inflation has been tamed. The statement also raised the Fed’s inflation forecast for year end to 2.6% (from 2.4% previously) and increased the GDP growth forecast to 2.1% at year end (from a 1.4% estimate a few months ago).

So…it was a non event, with forecasts that highlighted good growth and persistent inflation. A non event is fine in many ways – central bank surprises are rarely good! – but it somehow still prompted gold to jump to new heights in dramatic fashion.

If gold jumps higher without good fundamental reason, is it a bull market?

I’m honestly asking that. Because my first response to the non event Fed statement and press conference was to wonder two things:

  • Will three cuts be enough of a rate drop to get investors interested in gold?
  • Will three cuts happen? The Fed just strengthened its economic forecast (better

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